Medical experts believe that an effective vaccine against the corona virus will not be available to the general public until the fourth quarter of 2021.
This was revealed in a medical study conducted in Canada in which experts from the field of vaccine development were consulted.
The McGill University survey looked at 28 experts in the field of vaccineology.
The study began in late June and most of the experts involved were from Canada or the United States who have been active in their field for an average of 25 years.
Researcher Jonathan Camilleman said that the experts in our survey, in their predictions about the availability of the vaccine, made it very unlikely that any corona vaccine would be available to the public in early 2021.
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In fact, most believed that the availability of the vaccine by the summer of next year would be part of the best scenario.
Many experts believe that before the availability of an effective vaccine, there may be some kind of bad start.
According to the study, experts believe that there is a one-third chance that a safety warning may be issued for the vaccine after approval, while there is a 40 percent chance that the first large-scale study will report the efficacy. Don’t do
Questions asked by experts
Experts were asked to predict the development of the vaccine through various questions, specifically what they thought would be the best scenario, how soon the vaccine would be available and how long it would take.
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The questions and answers are as follows:
1. How long will a vaccine be available to the general public in the United States and Canada?
Answer: Best estimate September / October 2021 (average), early June 2021 (average), maximum July 2022 (average).
2. How long can the results of a study of at least 5,000 people be released?
Answer: Best estimate March 2021 (average), early December 2020 (average), maximum July 2021 (average).
3. How long will a vaccine be available to those most at risk?
Answer: Best estimate March / April 2021 (average), early February 2021 (average), maximum December 2021 (average).
Researchers believe that such a response would allow people to see the full picture of vaccine availability from the perspective of various experts.
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Possible obstacles
The study also found that one-third of experts believed that the following barriers to vaccine development could be encountered:
1. The first vaccine to be developed in the United States and Canada could be warned by the FDA that it could have deadly side effects or
2. This first large-scale trial will not say anything about the usefulness or will have negative consequences.
“Our research has found that experts agree on the duration of the corona virus vaccine’s availability,” the researchers said.
“Although experts’ opinions do not match the government’s welcome estimates, they reflect the view that researchers will complete their work much faster this time around than in previous vaccines,” he said.