The Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh region has made headlines all over the world for more than two weeks now. The recent clash between these two countries is the most intense and devastating in recent years.
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The renewed clashes could drawn in regional giants like Turkey who’s a close ally of Azerbaijan and Russia which has a defense agreement with Armenia. It also raises concerns over the security of the pipelines that carry Azeri Oil and Gas to Europe.
The on going fight is the worst since a 1991-94 war that killed over 30,000 people across the borders and ended up with cease fire. Since than both sides had been accusing each other of the cease fire violations and targeting the civilians.
According to sources nearly 31 civilians died in Azerbaijan while nothing’s clear about military casualties yet. On the other side 376 military personal and 22 civilians are dead. Heavy losses to military arsenals are also reported across the borders.
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Armenia and Azerbaijan both are former Soviet Republics got independence at the end of cold war. The become rivals soon after their independence due to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. It is an ethnic as well as territorial conflict between these two nations.
It includes Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts which are controlled and managed by the self declared Republic of Artsakh, internationally recognized as the part of Azerbaijan. The conflict originate in the early 20th century.
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Under the USSR, Joseph Stalin decided to make the Nagorno-Karabakh region an autonomous oblast of Soviet Azerbaijan . The on going conflict starts in 1988, when the Karabakh Armenians demanded the Karabakh to be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia.
The issue further escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s. The modern phase of the conflict starts on February 1988 when the USSR breaks in 1989 and ethnic tensions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis increased in the troubled region. The troubled Nagorno-Karabak region is ethically Armenian with most of the population belongs to Christian community.
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After their accede to Azarbaijan, they start a freedom movement against Azarbaijan and in favor of Armenia. Full scale war started in late winter of 1992. International mediation by many groups, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), failed to bring a solution.
In spring 1993, Armenian security forces captured territory outside the region threatening the involvement of other states in the region. By the end of the war in 1994, the Armenians were in full control of most of the region outside Nagorno-Karabak and also held and currently control nearly 9% of Azerbaijan’s territory outside the Nagorno-Karabak.
As many as 230,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan and 800,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia and Karabakh have been displaced as a result of the deadly conflict. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in May 1994, leading to diplomatic mediation.
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After that many incidents of ceasefire violations happened regularly including 2008 Mardakert clashes, 2010 Nagorno-Karabak clashes and Mardakert clashes, 2012 border clashes and 2014 border clashes including a helicopter shot down.
Over the years, Azerbaijan had turned the tables around completely . They had adopted an aggressive approach towards Armenia. In this regard, pushed by oil and gas windfall, Azerbaijan embarked in a military build-up.
In 2015 alone, Baku spent $3bn on its military arsenals, which could estimate more than Armenia’s entire national budget. It was obvious that Azerbaijan will intensified struggle over its occupied disputed regions. Regular clashes starts in a new series of events and with regular cease fire line violations.
In these deadly clashes many casualties happen across the border. The domestic life of the people of region was greatly disturbed. In these clashes hundreds of people mostly military personals become the victim of this on going war from 2016 onwards.
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During this time, the concerns of the international community increased considerably including the major powers of the regions and human right organizations.
In the recent clashes both sides has shown aggression. In these clashes, hundreds of casualties happen across the border. More intense and furious statements came out from both governments time an again and no one is ready to step down from their respective claims. Although, in a recent update both sides agreed upon cease fire.
Although risk of escalation is still there but this something positive that both sides agreed upon solving this issue with negotiations.
Russia has played a vital role to bring both sides on the table and provided them with an opportunity to resolve the issue in a sensible manner. interestingly Russia had good relations with both sides but always remain a bit closer to Armenia.
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Turkey an important player in the region also had it’s part to play. Turkey’s stance towards Azerbaijan always remains supportive and in recent years these two countries come closer to each other.
Moreover Azerbaijan is also an important oil and gas supplier in the region that could drag major international powers will further complicate things.